England team v Mexico

England team (possible) v MexicoWith two friendly fixtures before World Cup 2010, Fabio Capello has the tricky task of optimising the collective playing time of his favoured personnel whilst fielding as many of his squad as reasonably practicable.

Even with Gareth Barry missing, the team shape for the friendly against Mexico should not vary significantly from that which became familiar over the qualifiers. Frank Lampard will form one part of a conservative central-midfield pairing, Wayne Rooney will play a flexible attacking role just behind a target man, Steven Gerrard will take up an inside-left role, whilst a more orthodox winger will feature on the right. The key questions relate to who will take up these spare roles.

Next to Lampard in central-midfield it could be Tom Huddlestone, Michael Carrick or James Milner. Capello is a big fan of Milner and the Villa player has performed with vigour and aplomb during his appearances for England. However, Lampard does tend to have the most freedom within England’s central-midfield structure, so a more defensively minded partner may be required. Carrick has been used with Barry in central-midfield (to good effect in the friendly against Egypt), but he has been out of favour at Man Utd and may not provide a sufficiently resolute defensive shield when Lampard does break forwards. Huddlestone is a good ball-playing defensive midfielder, but perhaps the closest to a like-for-like replacement for Barry is Scott Parker. He offers a bit more grit than Carrick and has more experience than Milner of stabilising a central-midfield. I’d therefore opt for Parker, although Milner would be a close second based on his international form and adaptability.

On the right of midfield it’s a tricky choice between Theo Walcott and Aaron Lennon. Walcott’s form has been hit-and-miss with Arsenal, but he’s a Capello favourite and his pace could unsettle any full-back. If Walcott’s form remains shaky, then Lennon may be first choice by the time the tournament arrives: Lennon has experienced injury but returned to Tottenham’s starting XI before the close of the Premier League season. Adam Johnson is an intriguing alternative: although left-footed he has been used on the right at Man City. But with Gerrard tucking in from the left flank, Capello may prefer to keep a right-footer hugging the opposite touchline so that the team structure does not collapse into congestion in central areas.

Emile Heskey was first-choice centre-forward over the qualifiers but didn’t see any action against Egypt back in March. His playing time for Villa has been limited, but sensational club form has never been a prerequisite for his selection. His strength, pace and work-rate have been a key buttress to the team structure and he brings out the best in other attacking players. However, Peter Crouch, with his vastly superior international goal return, must be pushing for a first-team berth.

My favoured team for the Mexico friendly features above, but it would also be good to see Adam Johnson, Aaron Lennon and Darren Bent in action. [The graphic is courtesy of the gaffr.com team selector.]

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Selfish Memes

Richard Dawkins

Richard Dawkins

Memetics is the theoretical underpinning of a statistical research exercise at WCC. This study is setting out to establish which teams at World Cup 2010 will be shaped by the best ideas.

The science of memetics asserts that human behaviour and culture are shaped by memes. Richard Dawkins coined the term ‘meme’ in his book The Selfish Gene to demonstrate how ideas might be transmitted between people via a process that is analogous to genetic transmission. Whereas genes are passed from parent to offspring genetically by sexual intercourse, memes are passed from person to person via social interaction and communication. The meme is a unit of culture, which spreads between people as it is replicated between human brains. This relates to an epidemiological perspective of cultural transmission in which ideas can spread virulently through a population. And like genes, some memes are more successful at replicating than others.

A country which facilitates the effective spread of memes might be expected to have a successful national football team. Whilst memes have causal properties and are capable of replicating between human hosts, environmental context can hinder or assist this process. If advanced ideas on fitness, technique, tactics and strategy spread more quickly in one country in comparison with another, then this could confer competitive advantage.

A factor that may facilitate the spread of ideas is population density. Memes require human brains so that they can replicate: if people live in close proximity this provides a context in which ideas can spread with fecundity between these brains. In a dispersed population with less interaction between people, ideas could remain isolated and localised. Whilst the rise of communication technology has linked hitherto separated populations, the importance of face-to-face contact should not be underplayed. This type of interaction enables a more rounded basis for the transmission of ideas which enables the full emotional complexity of human communication to be conveyed: this increases the chance for memes to replicate with high fidelity.

Whilst the continued importance of face-to-face contact is asserted above, information technology is also a key tool for the transmission of ideas. The internet is a significant resource which can facilitate the spread of memes. Internet access also enables information-sharing that transcends national boundaries: a nation with a high level of access to the web has the means to procure good ideas from around the globe.

To establish which country should enable the most effective transmission/reception of memes, and as a corollary have the best national football team, we have multiplied the number of people per square mile in each country by the number of internet users (per 1000 members of the population). The table below demonstrates these figures [2007 data from Earth Trends]: based on the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between high meme transmission and high quality football, it seems that Netherlands are nailed on to win the World Cup in South Africa!

Meme transmission table

*UK figure

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Our man in New York!

Pele - New York CosmosMy friend Dr Mike recently moved from England to New York. This provided the opportunity for WCC to gain some insight from behind enemy lines! USA are, of course, England’s principal rivals in Group C. (Like me, Dr Mike doesn’t actually have a doctorate.)

What has been your first impression of American culture?

Honestly Dr Ted, I’m not sure I can sum it up in a few words. Perhaps the most striking thing is the frantic pace of life – although this may be specific to New York, where I am based. Apart from that, everyone seems super confident and very sure of themselves – something I’m hoping to steadily undermine with some good old-fashioned British pessimism and hours of moaning.

How does this first impression relate to their sporting ethos?

It’s the complete opposite! New Yorkers at least tend to treat watching sport as a laidback social event rather than an all-consuming, life and death matter – such as a football match back in England. With over 80 games in a domestic baseball or basketball season, I guess this is understandable, but it does feel like something is missing. Off-the-field entertainment seems to play a big part in the sporting experience – I recently attended a Yankees baseball game and between each innings there was a different form of entertainment – from the YMCA to Cotton Eyed Joe. Fans were actively encouraged by the stadium announcer to flash their biceps for the jumbotron broadcast!

Is a burgeoning sense of World Cup fever apparent yet in New York?

In a word: ‘No’.

How does US football/soccer media coverage compare with that in England?

It’s almost identical. Interestingly, the major channels over here simply show delayed footage of European games with British commentary. Imagine my relief a few weeks back to find ex-Newcastle man Warren Barton providing probing analysis at half time during Champions League coverage. As you may expect, MLS coverage does boast more enthusiastic American commentators, who refer to penalties as ‘PKs’ and open goals as ‘free netters’.

Should Landon Donovan be played on the flank or through the middle?

Pass. Having been based ‘Stateside’ in the close season I’m not in a position to comment. If you’re pushing me for an answer though I’d say down the flank. From the little I saw of him at Everton, he has close control, pace and a good delivery – all the ingredients of a top-class wide man!

Please provide three reasons why England is better than the US.

England gave the world Craig David, Dame Judi Dench and World Cup College.

Please provide three reasons why the US is better than England.

The US gave the world Bill Clinton, Stevie Wonder and McDonalds.

How far do you think the US will progress at World Cup 2010?

I’ve not really looked at their group yet, but I’m going to boldly say: first round knockout. Let’s hope the locals aren’t reading this!

England play the USA in their first group game: final score and scorers please…

England 3 – 0

Rooney
Walcott
Defoe

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May Caption Competition!

Caption competition

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A Load of Ballacks – but who’s to blame?

Michael Ballack

By Dr Paul: Michael Ballack, Germany’s totemic captain, fell under a heavy challenge from Portsmouth’s Ghanian international Kevin Prince Boateng in last weekend’s FA Cup final. As he hobbled off, all of Germany held its breath.

Sadly for Ballack, one of the stars of the past two World Cups, the worst news was confirmed – ankle ligament damage means he’ll miss the tournament in South Africa. In the subsequent days since the prognosis, a furious Germany has been delving deeper into the relationship between the two players. An article in today’s Independent explains that Boateng is from the same half-Ghanian, half-German family that also includes brother Jerome, who will turn out for Germany (and play for Manchester City next year). The article goes on to detail ‘previous’ between the two players – they apparently locked horns when Boateng and Ballack played for Hertha Berlin and Bayern Munich respectively. There are whispers and allegations from Germany that this was a ‘revenge’ attack on Ballack; a theory that’s being lent greater credence thanks to Germany and Ghana featuring in the same World Cup group. Was it really Boateng’s plan to make Germany weaker in the group stages? Ghana v Germany is a Group D match worth checking out!

Understandably, Germany, Ballack himself (who is considering legal action), ex- coach Rudi Voeller and current coach Joachim Low are angry and upset at losing their captain. Boateng has issued a public apology, and his father – still based in Germany – has moved quickly to distance himself and his son from any conspiratorial feeling. Ballack, it has to be said, is no longer the force that he once was in the centre of the park. Still dangerous and enjoying enormous stature in his homeland, he has, nonetheless, endured two less than spectacular seasons with Chelsea. Low is resisting the temptation to call up veterans Torsten Frings and Thomas Hitzlsperger to the squad in Ballack’s place, preferring to work with those he originally selected.

But what is behind this feeling of national, collective outrage? The same need for blame was felt in this country when Argentina’s Aldo Duscher tackled David Beckham in a Champions League match and broke his metatarsal, thus endangering the England captain’s presence in the 2002 World Cup.

The dynamics of attributing blame to others (scapegoating or demonising) was, in Beckham’s case, and is, in Ballack’s case, pulling the strings behind manifestations of guilt, aggression, blame and suffering – all transferred away from a person or group so as to fulfil an unconscious drive to resolve or avoid bad feelings. This is done by the displacement of responsibility onto another, who then serves as a target for blame.

Karpman-triangleIn the case of Duscher and now Boateng, a collective demonisation very much follows Karpman’s Drama Triangle, which outlines the connection between responsibility and power, and the relationship to certain boundaries. This hypothesis deals with a theory that suggests all people (and in this collective form, nations) construct a ‘script’ – an individual’s concept or belief about who they are, what the world is like, how they relate to the world and how the world relates to them. In this case a national preconception with how Germany are viewed in the world, and how Ballack fits into this view, mixes toxically with the suspicion (and perhaps fear) of the dangerous Ghanaian team (e.g. we love Ballack, he represents us, he is athletic, he is all-action, he is our hero/Ghana will target Ballack, Ghana will be a better team if they don’t have Ballack to face etc).

The Drama Triangle also suggests that each of us play ‘Games’ which are unconsciously motivated behavioural interactions with the world, our environment and those people with whom we are in contact. A ‘Game’ in this context is an unconscious belief that drives our actions and behaviour, in such a way as to either contribute to, or cause situations to occur that evoke a familiar feeling – usually negative. This feeling reinforces our beliefs or perceptions about ourselves, the world, other people and how we are treated.

Three clear roles within the Drama Triangle define the process – Victim, Perpetrator and Saviour. We know the roles Ballack and Boateng occupy, but who will be Germany’s saviour? Only time will tell…

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Fantasy Football Statistics

England Fantasy Football PointsBy Dr Neil: They say that, by the end of the season, the table doesn’t lie: the best team will win the league, the worst teams will be relegated, and the middling teams will finish in the middle! So surely, the same philosophy can be applied to the players within these teams? Fantasy football leagues in England have been rating players with reference to objective criteria for nearly 20 years now. So what would the England team look like if we use data from the most popular Premier League player picking portal, fantasy.premierleague.com to choose a team for Capello?

We’ve ranked players by their points per game, rather than overall points to allow for injuries and absences. And, to eliminate statistical outliers, only players with a minimum of ten matches under their belts this season are eligible. (Points in this league are principally based on goals, assists and clean-sheets.) A lot of familiar faces crop up but there are a few surprise inclusions too. These player rankings seem quite representative of England’s selection dilemmas: our top goalkeeper is only the 8th best in the league (behind the non-English keepers), but we could field a midfield of five that feature within the league‚Äôs top 10. With regard to the forwards, Rooney (2nd) is up with the best, whilst a cluster of others inhabit a statistical realm slightly below the peak of Premier League talent (Bent, Defoe, Agbonlahor and Zamora are 7th, 9th, 11th and 12th respectively.)

Goalkeeper
Joe Hart would be England’s no. 1, although he is only the 8th best Premier League stopper (according to our interpretation of Fantasy Premier League data). Paul Robinson (9th) would make the bench. Ben Foster ranks higher than Hart under points-per-game but narrowly misses out, having only played nine games for Manchester United this season.

Fantasy Football Stats - goal

Defence
The backline initially has a familiar look to it with Glen Johnson (2nd=), Ashley Cole (2nd=) and John Terry (8th) making the side. But they are supplemented by the otherwise ignored Jody Craddock (10th) of Wolverhampton Wanderers. Apart from a tongue-in-cheek internet campaign, Craddock hasn’t been mentioned at all with reference to the England squad. Does this mean the stats are misleading, or that he’s been overlooked as a result of being a 34 year old centre-half who has never played for one of the Premier League’s more fashionable sides? Stoke’s Danny Higginbotham (12th) takes a spot on the subs bench.

Fantasy Football Stats - defence 2

Midfield
Frank Lampard (1st), James Milner (5th) and Steven Gerrard (8th) could easily feature in England’s starting XI against the USA. They would be joined by David Dunn (7th) in England’s engine room. Aaron Lennon (9th) takes the midfield substitute spot.

Fantasy Football Stats - midfield

Forwards
No major surprises here. Rooney (2nd) partners Bent (7th) in attack, with Defoe (9th) on the bench.

Fantasy Football Stats - forwards

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Gail Trimble

Gail TrimbleIn England, there is a latent suspicion of intelligence, a suspicion which is ready to spring forth at opportune moments. England was traditionally a class-bound culture, with access to an academic education once the preserve of an upper-class elite. England now purports to be a meritocratic society: the ideals of this society suggest that variable qualities of individuals will lead to justifiable differentials in the accumulation of material rewards. It may therefore be the case that resentment is directed at those with high academic intelligence as this is still perceived to be an advantage conferred by inheritance from class background rather than personal endeavour. Another possibility is that intelligence is seen to be a more genetically-endowed quality than other virtues, such as a predilection for hard work. It is thus unfair, within a truly meritocratic society, to be born intelligent.

A stark indication of this attitude towards intelligence was demonstrated with Corpus Christi College’s progress in University Challenge in 2009. The captain of Corpus Christi, Gail Trimble, was the best contestant to feature on the show ever. Instead of being feted for her achievements, she was branded a pompous snob. It was quite remarkable how many negative inferences could be made into her character, when all she was doing was answering a lot of very difficult questions correctly. Trimble’s unquestionable academic intelligence drew out the resentments which permeate the character of an aspirational populace within a meritocratic society.

The residue of England’s class-bound past thus intersects with the status anxieties which accompany the meritocratic pretensions of a free-market capitalist economy. This is the societal context which football reflects, and with football’s own specific roots being embedded in a macho sporting culture, it may be some time before there is genuine diversity of intellect in professional football. Football in England is still seen as something requiring qualities other than intelligence. Ex-England defender Graeme Le Saux reports in his autobiography the abuse he experienced as a result of being a Guardian-reading player: he was on the receiving end of a sustained campaign of homophobic abuse. Intelligence was seen to be something which contradicted the hard masculine values of a visceral sport. It was only when the culture of the game became more cosmopolitan, with an influx of overseas players to clubs in the late 1990s that Le Saux felt that he fitted in.

Whilst Dutch football could accommodate the sophistry of Johann Cruyff, and Brazil were comfortable to have a qualified doctor, Socrates, as their playmaker, an overtly cerebral player from England would probably have encountered suspicion and hostility. This is not to question the intellect of any particular current or former England players; however, as a general orientation, intelligence does seem belligerently undervalued within English football. Any erroneous restriction to the diversity of a talent pool must have a negative impact on the pursuit of success: England’s distrust of intelligence therefore provides another reason why our national side won’t win World Cup 2010.

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England: Plan D

3-6-1 up against 4-2-2-2

3-6-1 up against 4-2-2-2

Fabio Capello has applied a coherent strategic approach since he took over as England coach. However, rumours abound that Capello is to dispense with consistency and deploy a 3-5-2 formation in South Africa. However, the 3-5-2 is almost obsolete as a core approach. WCC has highlighted how formations evolve in response to previous on-pitch configurations. The three-man central defence waned some years ago as sides could line up under 4-5-1/4-3-3 in response. The wingers under this model would occupy the wing-backs defensively meaning that the 3-5-2 had no attacking width and became 5-3-2 in practice. Three central defenders were left marking just one centre-forward, whilst the three-man central-midfield (which used to have an advantage over the two central-midfielders of a 4-4-2) were now presented with a numerically even contest.

Capello’s 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 template worked well for England over a successful but relatively unchallenging qualification campaign. But the greatest indication that England fall some way short of the best international sides was provided in the 2009 friendly against Spain. England were given the run around in this game and were quite obviously second best. Spain, like Brazil, often field a 4-2-2-2 formation. This enables the technically-gifted midfield to dominate games. Attacking width under this approach is often provided by the full-backs: the support afforded by the strong central-midfield means that they have the scope to push forwards. 4-2-2-2 has arisen, as four central-midfielders can overrun sides playing 4-5-1 in central areas – this dominance thus allows the full-backs to provide the attacking width, as high levels of possession will prevent opposing wide players from advancing.

However, with the focus on full-backs as attacking wide players, the 4-2-2-2 allows the opposition to field a more compact defence. A three-man central defence could thus make a return. Up against the narrow 4-2-2-2 approach, a 3-6-1 presents an even match-up in central-midfield, and the secure central defence also frees-up the wing-backs/wide-midfielders to a greater degree. A key way to overcome the 4-2-2-2 is to prevent the full-backs from advancing, as this substantially limits the attacking width of the team. Although the 3-6-1 only has two players designated to the flanks, the even match-up in central midfield, allied to the reinforcement of a three-man central-defence, means that the wide players are afforded more freedom to attack than the opposition’s full-backs. The wide players under 3-6-1 should therefore be considered wingers rather than wing-backs. With the opposition’s full-backs driven backwards, their central-midfield will be starved of distribution outlets.

If one of the forwards of the 4-2-2-2 wishes to drop deep or wide then a defender can follow them without concerns that the defence will be exposed. Greece adopted this approach at Euro 2004 (up against a more othodox 4-4-2) when their 3-6-1 squeezed the life out of France: Seitaridis was part of the three-man central-defence but also man-marked Thierry Henry. Greece did revert to a four-man defence when required, for example when playing against the 4-2-3-1 of Portugal in the final. In addition, Liverpool won the Champions League Final in 2005 by utilizing a three-man defence in the second-half: the extra midfield resources nullified AC Milan’s narrow midfield diamond and also helped John-Arne Riise to prevent attacking full-back Cafu from advancing.

England: 3-6-1

England: 3-6-1

The graphic to the left shows how England might line-up under a 3-6-1 (if Rooney pushes forward it readily mutates into 3-5-2.) Glen Johnson would be an alternative for the right, but I’ve selected the personnel so that it’s easy to return to Plan A if the opposition switch to a formation with a single centre-forward. I don’t believe Capello will subvert his 4-4-2/ 4-2-3-1 approach in South Africa, but 3-6-1/3-5-2 could be called up as Plan D when required.

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