Under Fabio Capello, England’s form in competitive games has been excellent: they cruised to qualification in impressive style and should improve further under tournament conditions. Their only defeat in competitive games was against Ukraine and that was when they went down to 10 men. They despatched Croatia with a 9-2 aggregate score line, and also saw off the group’s lesser lights in some style (something that hasnn’t come easily to England over previous qualifying campaigns). Whilst England haven’t exactly excelled in friendlies, the results do not undermine the achievements of the qualification campaign. Brazil and Spain were clearly superior, but Capello fielded sides on both occasions that were highly dissimilar to the first choice XI. It can also be hoped that any tactical flourishes to counter the Brazilian/Spanish approach were kept under wraps by Capello! In other friendlies against competitive European sides, England lost narrowly to France early in Capello’s tenure, and drew with both Czech Republic and Netherlands. England have also won the three friendlies they have played this year.
The key boost for England is coach Capello. He recognises that the team is not simply a collection of individuals and has imposed a style of play which reconciles Englishness with the requirements of contemporary international football. He hasn’t ripped away the comfort blanket of 4-4-2, but has turned it into a flexible framework under which England can respond to the opposition’s structure and strategy. Under previous managers, England often lost their way in games after high-tempo starts and would then be given the run around by sides that were more oriented to high levels of possession. A key example is the first game of World Cup 2006 against Paraguay: England looked like potential tournament winners in the first-half, but the South Americans sussed them out and made them look mediocre in the second-half. However, under Capello, England have consistently improved within games as he reorganizes the team to meet the specific challenges presented by the opposition.
With regard to personnel, England have a key match winner in Wayne Rooney and he scored freely over the qualifiers. Against tight, defensively organized sides it is vital to field an attacker that can exploit the fine margins of space which are available – for England, this player is Rooney. The midfield is settled for the first time in many years, with Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard looking comfortable in the same midfield at last (as long as Gerrard plays on the left!) And although Rio Ferdinand is out, there is ample cover at centre-back. England also have two excellent attacking full-backs in Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole.
In ‘Why England Lose?’ Simon Kuper and Stefan Syzmanski highlight that England’s qualification campaigns are a poor indicator of tournament success: convincing qualification does not correlate with good tournament form. But I believe England’s qualification intimates an underlying enhancement to the team dynamic and, therefore, signifies greater scope for success in 2010. Capello has instilled a coherent vision: a virtuous circle of improved results and enhanced team confidence been formed accordingly. The media and fans are presently less critical of the England set-up than they have been for many years. This can only be a boost as the tournament rapidly approaches.
Tournament success usually rests on fine margins. England have been knocked out of their last two major Finals on penalties at the quarter-final stage, and in the latter they were down to 10-men for an hour. The newfound strategic coherence of England’s approach, allied to greater squad vitality, should be key factors which can help them to edge beyond their comfortable quarter-final niche. In addition, for those nations which are happier playing in the damp and cold, South Africa’s winter will present the least debilitating World Cup environment that they have encountered for some time. England are in their best shape to win a World Cup, and will be performing in the least punishing climactic conditions since they were victorious hosts in 1966. A reasonable draw will also help them to obtain some positive momentum prior to meeting one of their principal rivals. England will win the World Cup!
Now I don’t know what to think!