There is a tendency to extrapolate form indicators almost exclusively from a team’s most recent performance. Following a poor game against Algeria, root and branch change to the England line-up was apparently required. But after an improved showing against Slovenia, it’s likely that the team from this final group game will be viewed as sacrosanct.
For the second-round contest against Germany it would, admittedly, be rash to make many changes to an England side that has just performed well together. The team functioned respectably against Slovenia and the players should have the opportunity to consolidate the improvements that were displayed. Prior to the Slovenia game, England’s defence, particularly the central-defence, had been an area of concern. However, John Terry and Matthew Upson provided a convincing barrier and, in the absence of Ledley King, should remain the central-defensive pairing. Ashley Cole has played very well on the left-side of defence, whilst Glen Johnson has presented the usual combination of exciting attacking forays and defensive lapses. Behind the back-four, David James put in an assured display against Slovenia, so England can enter the Germany fixture with reasonable confidence in the defensive unit.
James Milner asserted his credentials for right-midfield and should also be retained in the starting XI. Milner’s work-rate, confidence and crossing ability mean that he is a better option than Aaron Lennon or Shaun Wright-Phillips. The rest of the midfield should have a familiar Capello-look with Gareth Barry and Frank Lampard in the middle, and Steven Gerrard on the left. And Gerrard may need to retain a left-sided focus to limit the advances of German right-back Philipp Lahm.
If Fabio Capello is to make a change from the Slovenia line-up, then it should be in attack. Jermain Defoe fulfilled the principal striker’s objective against Slovenia by scoring the winning goal. But he was a peripheral figure overall, making just four passes over the 86 minutes he was on the pitch. His positioning at the tip of England’s attack did allow Wayne Rooney freedom to drop deep, but this is a role that could be undertaken by a forward who can make greater use of such potentially isolated positioning. Against Germany, England may need a centre-forward that can offer more than just goal-scoring ability! Emile Heskey played well against USA but was less impressive against Algeria. When Rooney was on top form over the qualifiers, Heskey’s selfless performances could be readily accommodated: but with Rooney providing just one goal and one assist over his last ten games, Heskey’s lack of goal-threat becomes an unsustainable feature of the team. Peter Crouch is therefore the player to lead England’s line against Germany: he has a fantastic international goal record and should provide a broader degree of contribution than that offered by Defoe.
Germany should set up under 4-2-3-1 with Mesut Ozil behind Miroslav Klose in attack. If England are overrun in midfield, then Gerrard may need to take up a central position behind Crouch, with Rooney moving to the left.
I slightly disagree with your take on the strike partnership. I think with Rooney dropping deep a striker with pace who threatens to get in behind and stretch the opposition defence is a MUST.
England’s midfield does not boast much pace, especially centrally, so for me Defoe must start ahead of Crouch and Heskey.
The other option could be Defoe and Crouch together, but Rooney would have to accomodated somehow, perhaps in a 4-3-3.
I just think with Rooney droping deep looking for the ball, Heskey/Crouch lacking pace in behind and Gerrard and Milner staying out wide the Germans will comfortably defend with the play in front of them.
That being said I didn’t even see the Algeria or the Slovenia game, so maybe my opinion should be taken with a pinch of salt!
The strike partnership is difficult to call. Defoe has pace, which is lacking in the rest of the team, but he tends to be anonymous if things aren’t going his way. Crouch brings something different though it seems Capello doesn’t rate him. And of course there’s Heskey who doesn’t score much, but can cause havoc amongst the defence. Not a call I’d like to make, so it’s time for Capello to earn his money.
I’m more worried about the central defence and how the midfield protect them. It’s going to be a close game that’s going to be decided by small margins. Hopefully it’s our turn.
I’d be tempted to start with Crouch.
Defoe managed 4 passes in the Slovenia game and Rooney and Defoe didn’t pass to each other once in the whole game. That doesn’t sound like a strike partnership that’s working well to me.
The German defence is relatively inexperienced, (other than Lahm) so if we can get Milner whipping in some more good balls, I think Crouch could give them some real problems.