WCC recently analysed fantasy football data to explore an England XI based on performance statistics. We utilized Fantasy Premier League stats, and focused on average points per game from the 09/10 season. One potential issue with analyzing player performance is separating a player’s unique contribution from the overall performance of their team. For example, there was greater likelihood of scoring points for a clean-sheet if you played for champions Chelsea than relegated Portsmouth. And if you’re a Hull midfielder you are likely to have fewer opportunities to score goals and provide assists than your counterpart at Man Utd.
Fig. 1
Taking this into account, WCC has weighted the statistics to take into account the fact that players are situated within sides of varying quality. The difference between the top and bottom of the table with regard to goal difference was approximately 100, with Chelsea on +71 and Portsmouth on -32. (A Portsmouth player was in a team that was 103 goals worse than Chelsea over the season.) The spread in quality in the Premier League, using goal difference as an indicator, is thus rounded to 100. We can assume that the difference in quality from top to bottom roughly decreases at an incremental rate. Therefore we have increased the players’ average points per game by a fixed percentage to counterbalance this spread in team quality from top to bottom – see Fig 1.
Chelsea players receive no uplift as they were supported by the best team in the league. Man Utd players receive 10% uplift, Arsenal players 15%, and so on at 5% increments until Portsmouth, whose players receive 100% uplift. A Man Utd player with an average points per game score of 6 would therefore receive a 10% (0.6) uplift and thus end up with an adjusted rating of 6.6.
Applying this statistical approach, it appears that Robert Green is the rational choice to be England’s no.1. He scored a mean of 3.2 points per game over the year, but a wobbly West Ham side has been his only protection! Following 85% uplift he takes the keeper’s jersey with an adjusted score of 5.92. Paul Robinson (5.70) is the back-up, closely followed by pre-uplift no.1 Joe Hart (5.66). Despite 100% uplift, Portsmouth’s David James (5.40) still falls outside the squad.
Wolves’ Jody Craddock made the squad under the original statistics. But with 75% uplift he actually becomes the best defender in the Premier League, with an adjusted mean of 7.00 points per game. Glen Johnson (6.75) also retains his place. 35% uplift might seem generous for a Liverpool player, but they have experienced a lacklustre season. How many more points would Johnson have scored for Chelsea or Man Utd? In addition, Stoke pair Ryan Shawcross and Danny Higginbotham make the side (both 6.67). Scoring 5.60, Nicky Shorey (unwanted by Villa and behind Paul Konchesky at Fulham) is first substitute, with Matthew Upson (5.55) not far away. Blackburn’s teenage centre-back Phil Jones would be first reserve with 5.70, but he only played nine games so doesn’t meet our 10 games minimum criterion for inclusion. Perhaps he might be included at World Cup 2014!
Hull’s Jimmy Bullard is now the top midfielder, with his points per game average of 4.4 raised by 95% to 8.58. Frank Lampard does not receive any increase, but keeps his place in midfield courtesy of his impressive average of 7.9 points per game. David Dunn (7.35) also keeps his place, whilst Portsmouth’s Jamie O’Hara scores 6.8. Will O’Hara come into the international reckoning in the future if he secures a place at a more successful club? The midfield sub is Matthew Etherington (6.67) closely followed by James Milner (6.63).
Wayne Rooney (7.7) and Darren Bent are still the highest scoring forwards, but the latter is now top with an adjusted average of 8.42. Based on these figures, Fabio Capello should certainly take Bent to South Africa as he’s the best striker in the Premier League! First substitute is Carlton Cole (6.85) who may be unlucky not to have made the preliminary squad. Perhaps his association with an underperforming West Ham damaged his chances. It is perhaps noteworthy that England’s regular centre-forward Emile Heskey has an adjusted rating of only 2.47.
