Centre-forward

For World Cup 2006, England went to Germany with a shortage of fit forwards. Wayne Rooney was not ready for the start of the tournament following a broken metatarsal, whilst Michael Owen had recently returned from injury. Peter Crouch was the only fully fit and established forward, as untested teenager Theo Walcott supplemented the threadbare strike-force. Owen sustained a further injury in the group stage which ruled him out of the rest of the tournament.

In keeping with the ‘individuals before team’ ethos of the Sven Goran Eriksson era, Rooney was played as a lone forward in front of a five-man midfield in the knock-out phase. Rooney could have been played behind Crouch but that would have placed Gerrard, Lampard or Beckham at risk of being dropped. (All three underperformed in Germany but were apparently deemed untouchable.) In the quarter-final against Portugal, England actually performed more effectively after Rooney had been sent off and Crouch introduced. England’s campaign could perhaps have been more successful if the fit and in-form Crouch had been more central to Eriksson’s plans.

It does not appear that Fabio Capello will be making such errors with his strike-force in 2010. Up until now Emile Heskey has been Capello’s first choice centre-forward. Heskey’s scoring record for England is unimpressive, but Capello recognizes that the centre-forward provides a key function in supporting the team structure and is not simply a goal poacher. Capello also appears to acknowledge that ‘centre-forward’ is not a homogenous category, and that different types of forward offer variable qualities to the team. When seeking a direct replacement for Heskey, Capello would not look to a small, sharp player like Jermain Defoe. Perhaps the closest to a like-for-like replacement for Heskey is Carlton Cole. Cole offers similar attributes to Heskey and has looked handy enough from limited opportunities with England. However, Crouch is perhaps the key alternative: whilst he doesn’t have Heskey’s power, his scoring record is distinctly more impressive. The fact that Kevin Davies has also been on the fringe of the squad also indicates Capello’s predilection for a forward that can lead the line, although Bobby Zamora has probably supplanted Davies as the principal wildcard.

Whilst the press and public prefer fast, sharp strikers in the Defoe mould, it is unlikely that Capello will dispense with a target man. Against Egypt, the side looked better after Crouch had replaced Defoe. If Rooney is injured, and the switch to a more orthodox 4-4-2 is made, then it is likely that Defoe would come into the side. If Defoe does not make the squad for any reason, then Darren Bent or Gabriel Agbonlahor could be called up. Neither player has established themselves at international level, but both have been on good form for their clubs. Bent is a more established Premier League goal scorer and has been prolific for Sunderland this season. But Agbonhlahor has performed the better of the two for England, and I believe that he will be ahead of Bent on Capello’s list. Although neither player could be considered a target man, they both have experience of playing as lone forwards at club level.

WCC predicts that Capello will take five forwards with target men Heskey, Crouch and Cole accompanied by Defoe and Rooney. It is a worry though that Rooney has experienced injuries recently (and his excellent season accordingly petered out a little), Heskey has been outside the Aston Villa first XI since March, whilst Defoe’s club form of late has been indifferent.