What if?

When England failed to qualify for Euro 2008 there was much debate about the seemingly terminal decline of English football. What role can history play in helping us to understand the apparent malaise which gripped the English game circa 2008?

A historian referring to the broad sweep of cultural process may have analyzed the features of the English psyche that seem to favour effort in sport over technical expertise. English football has traditionally been predicated on hard work and high energy, with technical skills considered softer parts of the game. England’s culture had thus meant that football had stagnated whilst other nations advanced technically, and the qualification campaign for 2008 brought this starkly to our attention.

A more institutionally-minded historian would look less at the overarching culture of society focus and more on administrative infrastructure. The need for better coaching in schools and at grassroots level is a factor that would facilitate bottom-up advancement throughout the game. The influx of foreign talent at professional clubs would also be argued to have limited the scope for homegrown players to establish themselves. Root and branch changes were thus required to mend an organizational structure which had ultimately been unable to support the national team’s qualifying campaign.

Whilst there may be elements of truth to these broad historical perspectives, the counterfactual historian warns against a reverse-engineered view of history as an inevitable sequence of events and asks instead what if?

A 2-2 draw against Croatia advances England to Euro 2008

For example, with regard to the Euro 2008 qualifiers, what if Steven Gerrard hadn’t missed from close range in the 50th minute against Russia in Moscow? And what if Mladen Petric hadn‚Äôt scored a thunderbolt for Croatia late in the final qualifying game at Wembley? The answer in both cases is that England would probably have qualified for the tournament – from a very competitive group. Such a fine margin of failure is perhaps an insufficient indicator of deep cultural or structural malaise. Contingency and luck did impact upon what were, admittedly, Steve McClaren’s flawed endeavours to guide England to the Euros. Those arguing for root and branch change to our sporting fabric should perhaps also have noted the success of English clubs in the Champions League around this period.

One successful World Cup qualification campaign later and the monolithic theories decrying [select any of the following] a declining national culture; poor coaching in schools; overpaid players lacking moral fibre; too many foreign players in the Premier League; the cold climate preventing practice of technical skills etc – have suddenly dwindled. But perhaps the same counterfactual historical stance should be applied to England’s success in this instance. What if, during the early qualifier in Zagreb, Croatia’s Robert Kovac had only received a yellow card for his challenge on Joe Cole?