Statistics

Someone once said: “There are…lies, damn lies and statistics”. But they were clearly being ironic as everyone knows that statistics are numbers and that numbers are, essentially, the same thing as facts.

With this in mind, we focus attention on WCC’s player ratings from England’s qualification campaign. Rigorous TV-viewing analysis was converted into player ratings for those performing in the genuinely competitive qualifiers. I’m not counting the final two games after qualification was assured, as these inevitably presented a different, less pressurized proposition to the players. Calculations based upon these player ratings have established their average mark out of 10 and, as a corollary, the team which Capello should field in South Africa. Please see the table above, the first choice XI feature in bold. The table shows the player, average rating, number of rateable performances, and their regular position in the qualifiers. (Only players with two or more rateable performances have been considered).

Of course some decisions have to be made with regard to how the data is manipulated. Perhaps the biggest decision relates to whether to pick the best players, or the best team. I’ve opted for the latter: 4-4-2 has been chosen as the formation and the players selected according to the position where they were preponderantly situated over the qualifiers.

Arguably the greatest controversy is the exclusion of Steven Gerrard. He has to be considered a left-midfielder for England, and he loses out to Joe Cole. Cole turned the game as substitute in the first game against Andorra, and was then replaced following injury in the next game against Croatia. He wasn’t seen in the qualifiers again, but this limited input into the campaign has secured his place in the first XI. Despite being the (joint) 6th best England player of the qualifiers overall, Gerrard misses out. This shows that, whilst statistics are never wrong, they are sometimes harsh. There aren’t too many other controversies, but it is notable that Wes Brown pips Glen Johnson to the right-back slot, whilst Aaron Lennon is ahead of Theo Walcott at right-midfield.